Key Figures of the Week
The last week in the cryptocurrency market saw modest upward movement. The price of the largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, rose by approximately 5%, while the price of the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, dropped by 2%. The total market value of other cryptocurrencies (excluding the largest stablecoins) increased by about 3%.
As Bitcoin outperformed the rest of the market slightly, Bitcoin dominance rose by approximately 1% over the week. On the other hand, Ether underperformed both Bitcoin and the altcoin market, leading to a sharp 6% decline in the ETH/BTC ratio.
When examining individual tokens, the week featured both sharp gains and notable losses. Among tokens traded on the Kvarn X trading platform, the biggest weekly gainers were Raydium (RAY, +47%), Solana (SOL, +30%), and Chainlink (LINK, +15%). The largest weekly declines were observed in BEAM (-12%) and the meme coins PEPE (-1%) and FLOKI (-14%).
Market Commentary
Since mid-November, the cryptocurrency market has been moving sideways, largely trading within the $90,000–$105,000 range. Currently, we are once again at the upper end of this range, and there is significant interest in whether the market will finally break above the $110,000 mark.
A potential breakout is the hot topic of the week. If successful, it would propel Bitcoin into a "price discovery" phase, while failure could push the price back to test the $90,000 support level. At the time of writing (Wednesday, January 22, 2025), momentum on the 4-hour chart appears to be slowing rather than accelerating.
Similarly, the altcoin market is struggling to climb above a total market value of $900 billion.
At this moment, we must leave room for the possibility that breaking the $110,000 threshold may prove too challenging, necessitating a retreat to a lower level. However, even in this case, we wouldn’t be surprised if support is found relatively high, such as near the $101,000 level indicated by the trend line of previous lows.
It’s worth noting that all technical analysis indicators may become irrelevant if the U.S. government's new cryptocurrency policies reveal something concrete, particularly something contrary to market expectations. A clear example of how the new administration can influence the cryptocurrency market was seen even before Donald Trump’s inauguration, as detailed below.
Trump Shakes Up the Altcoin Market
The most remarkable event of the week occurred on Friday when a meme coin named after Donald Trump was launched. The TRUMP token skyrocketed immediately, quickly rising to become one of the top 30 tokens by market capitalization.
The excitement continued on Sunday with the launch of the MELANIA meme coin, named after the U.S.'s new "First Lady." MELANIA has also risen to rank among the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
Following the launch of the TRUMP token, sharp declines were observed in many altcoins as surprised cryptocurrency traders freed up capital to purchase TRUMP.
The launch of the TRUMP coin is a highly unexpected and even astonishing development. It has garnered significant media coverage, including in mainstream outlets. However, it is still challenging to assess the broader implications of a token tied to the leader of the world’s most powerful nation, which has immediately risen among the largest cryptocurrencies by market value. For this reason, we refrain from drawing far-reaching conclusions at this time and will analyze the situation further as it becomes clearer.
BTC, ETH and SOL
One defining feature of the bull market in 2023–2024 has been the relative weakness of Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency. While Bitcoin’s price has risen by over 500% since the start of 2023, Ether's price increase has been only about 180%.
The ETH/BTC ratio, which reflects the relationship between the two largest cryptocurrencies, shows that Ether has lost more than half of its value relative to Bitcoin.
The year 2025 has so far not altered this trend, which has persisted since the fall of 2022. In early January, the ETH/BTC ratio hit a new "lower high," followed by a new "lower low" during the past week. Ether’s relative weakness is most starkly illustrated by its dollar price decline over the past week, even as the overall cryptocurrency market trended upward.
Ether’s apparent competitor, Solana (SOL), reached a new all-time high against Ether (conversely, Ether hit a new all-time low against SOL).
However, despite the buzz surrounding the launch of the TRUMP meme coin, the SOL/ETH ratio only barely surpassed its November peak. Throughout 2024, we frequently hypothesized that Solana’s strongest period of outperformance against Ether might be behind us. Even if Solana's growth continues, it is likely to become slower and more oscillatory. This hypothesis appears to have been validated, as seen in the flattening of the 100-day moving average and the oscillation of the SOLETH ratio around it.
What Could This Mean?
At present, it seems possible that both Ether and Solana may be losing momentum relative to Bitcoin. In Solana's case, this cannot yet be called a downward trend, but after the strong growth seen in 2023, the year 2024 was primarily characterized by sideways movement against Bitcoin. Before the weekend’s spike, both the weekly Relative Strength Index and the 20-week moving average for Solana had already turned downward. The weekend spike now appears to have formed a new "lower high" compared to the November peak.
It is too early to draw conclusions, but it seems plausible that Bitcoin may once again be the strongest contender among the “big three” in the short term. On the other hand, the paradigm of the "big three" itself, which held throughout 2023–2024, seems questionable, as XRP has recently surpassed Solana in market capitalization. It is quite possible that XRP’s significant strengthening over the past few months has come primarily at the expense of its closest competitors, Ether and Solana.
With these thoughts, we leave readers to observe the fascinating state of the cryptocurrency market following Donald Trump’s inauguration and the launch of the TRUMP meme coin. We’ll be back next week with the Kvarn Pulse newsletter—stay tuned!
New tokens added to Kvarn X – Toncoin, Mantle, Kaspa, Render, and Syrup!
The new tokens are now available on web and mobile apps. Be sure to update to the latest version of the app.
Toncoin (TON): Toncoin is the native cryptocurrency of The Open Network (TON), originally developed by Telegram. It offers fast transactions and scalability, making it a potential game-changer in the cryptocurrency market.
Mantle (MNT): Mantle is a Layer 2 scaling solution for the Ethereum ecosystem that uses Optimistic Rollup technology to enhance transaction speed and reduce costs while maintaining Ethereum network security.
Kaspa (KAS): Kaspa is an innovative Proof-of-Work-based blockchain that utilises the GHOSTDAG protocol, enabling fast and secure transactions. It aims to address scalability challenges while maintaining high security and decentralisation.
Render (Solana) (RENDER): Render Network is a decentralised GPU rendering platform that initially operated on the Ethereum blockchain with the RNDR token. Following a community vote (RNP-002), Render Network has expanded its operations to the Solana blockchain, leveraging its low transaction costs and high performance.
Syrup (SYRUP): Syrup is the native token of the Maple Finance ecosystem, replacing the former MPL token. It functions within a decentralised finance (DeFi) platform focusing on institutional lending and yields.
2024 reports available
All 2024 reports are available for viewing and downloading in Kvarn X under Documents.
Profits and losses: Profits and losses calculated on realized transactions in 2024.
Transaction Report 2024: All transactions in 2024 and a summary of them.
Divly-compatible tax report: If you use our partner Divly for tax reporting, you will find a report tailored for this purpose.
Ideas for Building a Crypto Portfolio?
If you're wondering how to build a crypto portfolio or how to get started with crypto investing, we offer various theme-based examples in this section as ideas for constructing your portfolio. Please note that nothing in this newsletter constitutes investment advice or should be interpreted as an encouragement to make investment decisions.
Theme Idea: AI Tokens
Artificial intelligence (AI) is one of today’s biggest megatrends. AI tokens have been one of the hottest themes of 2024 in the crypto market.
Crypto projects that combine AI and blockchain technology are particularly interesting for two reasons:
1. Many aim to solve one of AI's biggest issues, data centralization. Projects focused on decentralizing data and/or computing power aim to provide a fairer and thus safer foundation for AI development.
2. These projects’ tokens allow small investors to benefit directly from AI's value creation, potentially more so than publicly traded stocks.
An example of an AI-themed crypto portfolio available on Kvarn X might include:
- Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET)
- Render (RENDER)
- Akash Network (AKT)
Stay tuned for more portfolio-building theme ideas in our upcoming Pulse newsletters!
The material contained in the Kvarn Pulse is produced solely for the purpose of marketing communication. Any information conveyed through Kvarn Pulse should not be construed as an offer or an invitation to make any purchase or sale decisions, or as an encouragement to make investment decisions about any investment object. Copying or borrowing the content of the newsletter without Kvarn's express permission is prohibited. The information presented in the newsletter pertains to the situation prevailing at the time of writing, and the information may or may not have changed. Kvarn Capital Oy does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the newsletter or referred to in the newsletter.
